Вестник Самарского государственного экономического университета

Вестник самарского государственного экономического университета
Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics

2024 №6 (236)

REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMY

Gorbunova V.B.

Comparability of regions for the purpose of assessing the economic security of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

Abstract. In modern conditions, issues of ensuring the economic security are becoming increasingly relevant and should be studied using an integrated approach. The purpose of the study is to substantiate a methodological approach to determining the comparability of regions for the purpose of assessing their economic security. It is especially noted that the proposed methodology should be used in conjunction with existing assessment tools and can be applied to find new management solutions in matters of ensuring the economic security of regions.
Keywords: comparability, economic security, comparative approach, integral coefficient, region. Highlights: - the need to improve the assessment of the economic security of a region is substantiated; - the methodological approach is presented to determine the comparability of regions in order to assess the economic security based on the calculation of integral indicators.

Email:	viktoriya.gorbunova@klgtu.ru
Сведения:	Victoria B. Gorbunova - Kaliningrad State Technical University, Kaliningrad, Russia

Zhenkin D.P.

Economic analysis of the company`s activities using complex models of financial condition: application, relevance, reliability

Abstract. Currently, economics has a large number of complex models for assessing the financial condition of enterprises. The greatest contribution to this area was made by domestic and foreign scientists who studied crisis management. It is in the field of crisis management that you can find a lot of methods for researching an enterprise for future possible insolvency. The essence of each of them is the same - to analyze the behavior of the enterprise for a certain period using data from the presented accounting statements for calculations; in other words, it means to conduct an audit to identify possible cases of the company`s inability to pay off its obligations. For such verification, enterprise insolvency analysis models are used. In economics, the concept of "insolvency of an enterprise" is interpreted in different ways, sometimes it is even identified with the similar term "bankruptcy", which is partly a mistake. The category "bankrupt" can be assigned after the necessary audit upon application from the creditor or debtor to the arbitration court regulating such a procedure in accordance with Federal Law No. 127-FZ "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)". In this article, the techniques that have gained the most popularity will be considered. With their help, the financial condition of the agricultural sector was studied on the example of one of the leading enterprises of the Samara region, which is located in the zone of risky agriculture. The main activity of the analyzed enterprise is crop production. The analysis shows what is the probability of possible insolvency of the enterprise under study and what can lead to it. As conclusions, recommendations for improving the indicators of financial and economic activity of an agricultural enterprise are considered, and the reliability of the applied methods for analyzing and predicting the probability of bankruptcy is confirmed.
Keywords: agro-industrial complex, agricultural enterprise, insolvency analysis, financial management, financial condition model. Highlights: - the main difference between domestic and foreign methods is the emphasis on the assessment of production indicators, which is proved in this research on the weight coefficients of the studied models; - the considered domestic and foreign models for analyzingand predictingthe probability of bankruptcy gave a reliable assessment of the activity of the agricultural enterprise under study; - the key drawback of the considered methods of insolvency analysis is the study of a specific area of possible risk using a narrow data coverage.

Email:	mark_david_wolf@vk.com
Сведения:	Dmitry P. Zhenkin - Samara State Agrarian University, Samara, Russia

Loginov D.A., Ryabenko V.N.

The economic security management system of the region

Abstract. The relevance of the research topic is determined by the need to develop universal approaches to managing economic security at the regional level. The problem of the study lies in the lack of proven and universal solutions for establishing all parts of the economic security management system of the region, and therefore effectively functioning economic security management systems of the region are not widespread. The work is aimed at substantiating the image of the economic security management system of the region and its composition, structure and interaction of its constituent elements. As a result of the research, the authors proposed their own interpretation of the concept of the economic security management system of the region and justified the key links of this system. It is proved that the economic security management system of the region will be effective if it includes regulatory and legal support, monitoring procedures, strategic analysis and goal setting, decision-making process in the field of economic security, a set of economic security management bodies as part of coordinating and methodological bodies, as well as a mechanism for public control over the achievement of goals and objectives of regional economic security. It is proposed to create a system of economic security in the region, not obeying the classical sectoral principles of building regional management systems, but putting the priority of economic security at the forefront as a self-reproducing mechanism for creating the most favorable conditions for the development of society and regional economy.
Keywords: economic security, region, management, public administration, management of socio-economic development of the region, strategy, threats, challenges to economic security, risks, socio-economic development. Highlights: - ensuring the economic security of the region requires the creation of an effective management system; - the implementation of the economic security management system is complicated by the classical scheme of regional socio-economic development management based on an industry approach; - it is advisable to ensure the management of the economic security of the region using a systematic approach, when monitoring, analysis, goal setting, regulatory design, management decision-making, financing and public control are combined into a single management system that provides a synergistic effect; - the creation of a regional economic security management system involves the formation of specialized coordinating and methodological bodies with powers extending to all sectoral executive authorities of the region.

Email:	doctorloginov@mail.ru; finance-vyatka@rambler.ru
Сведения:	Dmitry A. Loginov - Vyatka State University, Kirov, Russia, Viktor N. Ryabenko - PROF-INVEST LLC, Kirov, Russia

Lofichenko A.A.

Assessing the effectiveness of the development of the coal industry of the Russian Federation

Abstract. The coal industry is one of the most important sectors of both the fuel and energy complex in particular and the industrial complex of the state as a whole. The article proposes a method for assessingthe effectiveness of the development of the coal industry, consistingof thefollowingstages: selection of statistical indicators, standardization of indicators, calculation of indicator accelerations, ranking of indicators, creation of a reference model of industry development, construction of actual ranking series, calculation of rank correlation coefficients and performance assessments. An assessment was made of the effectiveness of the development of the coal industry of the Russian Federation in the period from 2019 to 2022, and the reasons for the occurrence of the obtained assessments were analyzed.
Keywords: coal industry, development, performance, functional model, pairwise comparisons, flows. Highlights: - a method for evaluating the effectiveness of the development of the coal industry, taking into account the peculiarities of its functioning, is proposed; - assessments of the effectiveness of the development of the coal industry of the Russian Federation were obtained; - the reasons hinderingthe sustainable development of the coal industry of the Russian Federation have been identified.

Email:	canych21@yandex.ru
Сведения:	Aleksandr A. Lofichenko - Lugansk Vladimir Dahl State University, Lugansk, Russia

MakarovS.I., Lukianov M.A., IvanovD.V.

Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of the Russian market for wholesale trade of industrial equipment

Abstract. The article provides an economic and statistical analysis of the wholesale market of industrial equipment in the Russian Federation and the Samara region. Statistical indicators reflecting market dynamics have been determined. The possibility of applicability of economic and statistical methods to economic indicators of the market, such as statistical grouping correlation and regression analysis, methods of nonpara-metric statistics, methods of analysis and modeling of time series, is substantiated. A comparative assessment of the dynamics of wholesale trade turnover in Russia and the Samara region was carried out usingthe method of comparative analysis, using relative values - lead coefficients. The forecast of the turnover indicators of wholesale trade in industrial equipment of the Russian Federation and the Samara region has been made.
Keywords: industrial equipment wholesale market, wholesale trade market indicators, economic and statistical modeling, forecasting, inter-territorial analysis. Highlights: - the possibility of applicability to the economic indicators of the wholesale market of industrial equipment of economic and statistical methods such as statistical grouping, correlation and regression analysis, the method of nonparametric statistics Pattern, methods of analysis and modeling of time series, tabular and graphical methods; - the analysis of the dynamics of wholesale trade turnover in Russia and the Samara region is carried out; - the forecast of wholesale trade turnover indicators has been made.

Email:	matmaksi@yandex.ru; maxl6391@yandex.ru; dvi85@list.ru
Сведения:	Sergey I. Makarov, Maxim A. Lukianov - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia, Dmitry V. Ivanov - Samara State Transport University, Samara, Russia, Samara National Research University, Samara, Russia

Melenkina S.A., Uzhegov A.O., Cheskidova T.M.

Problems and prospects of scientific and technological development: regional aspect

Abstract. The article is devoted to the analysis of scientific and technological development in the regional aspect. The relevance of the research topic is determined by the tightening of sanctions applied by unfriendly countries, especially in the field of technological development, which creates the need to find new ways to develop innovations and ensure technological independence. The scientific problem facing researchers is the need for a systematic approach to the analysis of scientific and technological development of the macro-territory in order to identify the main factors that can become an obstacle to innovative progress. Methodologically, the study is based on a systematic approach to the analysis and assessment of scientific and technological development of regions, using methods of economic analysis, including comparative analysis and generalization. The authors of the article analyzed the current state and identified the main factors hindering the development of innovations. A conceptual model of scientific and technological development of the regions has been developed, which includes the subjects of regional innovation activity and key areas for increasing regional innovation activity. Based on the developed model, a set of measures aimed at stimulating innovative activity in the Ural economic region is presented. The proposed measures are aimed at improving the innovation environment in the region and contributing to scientific and technological development.
Keywords:scientific and technological development, Ural economic region, innovation, macro-territories, conceptual model, regional aspect, assessment, set of measures Highlights: - an analysis of the state of scientific and technological development of the regions of the Ural economic region (UER) was carried out; - the dynamics of the number of R&D researchers and the general level of «havingan academic degree» of researchers as an indicator of the level of personnel qualifications was studied; - regional financial support for scientific research was analyzed; - a decrease in the level of innovative activity of organizations and the volume of innovative goods in the regions of the Ural economic region has been revealed; - a conceptual model of scientific and technological development of the regions of the Ural economic region has been developed; - a set of measures aimed at stimulating innovation activity in UER is presented.

Email:	melenkina.sa@uiec.ru; uzhegov.ao@uiec.ru; tatches@mail.ru
Сведения:	Svetlana A. Melenkina, Artyom 0. Uzhegov - Chelyabinsk branch of the Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Chelyabinsk, Russia, Tatyana M. Cheskidova - Ural Socio-Economic Institute (branch) of the Educational Unitary Enterprise «Academy of Labor and Social Relations", Chelyabinsk, Russia

MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

Kulikova O.M., Veremchuk N.S.

Dynamic Bayesian networks in solving the tasks of strategic and operational planning to hold back the pandemic

Abstract. The use of government measures to hold back the pandemic requires effective solution of operational and strategic planning tasks and coverage of the entire population of the country without exception. This study aims to identify the interrelationships between the indicators of the epidemic process and the indicators of the state`s response to hold back the COVID-19 pandemic. A sequence of anti-epidemic measures has been identified that contributes to reducing the incidence of the population and increasingthe economic potential of the country. The study was carried out on the example of Russia. Weekly statistical data for the period from January to December 2020 were used on indicators characterizing the development of the COVID-19 epidemic process and the implementation of state anti-epidemic measures (source - Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker). A dynamic Bayesian network is constructed. When training the network, the algorithm "a variation on Ghada Trabelsi`s dynamic max-min hill climbing" was used. The calculations were performed usingthe dbnR library of the R programming language. The followingtypes of relationships have been identified between indicators of the development of the COVID-19 epidemic process and government measures to contain the pandemic: 1) short-term; 2) long-term; 3) self-influence. State anti-epidemic measures form a complex dynamic structure that determines the patterns of their impact on curbing the increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in the Russian population. The epidemic process is characterized by a memory effect: changes in the morbidity and mortality of the population at the current moment will cause changes in the indicators of this process in the future. Effective implementation of state anti-epidemic measures helps to reduce the increase in morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. At the same time, it is necessary to observe a strict sequence of anti-epidemic measures: start with the implementation of measures in the field of healthcare, then gradually connect restrictive state measures, then - measures of state economic support for the population. Special attention should be paid to the implementation of two types of activities: 1) restrictions on holding meetings; 2) economic support for the population, as they are significantly influenced by various factors. At the same time, the restriction on the movement of public transport does not have a significant impact on the morbidity and mortality of the population from COVID-19.
Keywords: Bayesian network, epidemic process, operational planning, state anti-epidemic measures Highlights: - the sequence and interrelationships between the indicators of the epidemic process and the factors of the state`s response to hold back the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia are determined; - the presence of a memory effect in the conduct of state anti-epidemic measures has been revealed, indicatingthat their effective implementation atthe moment will contribute to reducingthe growth of morbidity and mortality in the long term and the growth of the country`s economic potential; - it is necessary to observe a strict sequence of anti-epidemic measures: start with the implementation of measures in the field of healthcare, then gradually connect restrictive state measures, then measures of state economic support for the population and business; - in orderto reduce the negative impact of the consequences of the pandemic on the country`s economy, it is recommended to strictly monitor the socio-economic well-being of the population and businesses to prevent the risk of their bankruptcy.

Email:	ya.aaaaall@yandex.ru; n-veremchuk@rambler.ru
Сведения:	Oksana M. Kulikova - Siberian State Automobile and Highway University, Omsk, Russia, Natalia S. Veremchuk - Siberian State Automobile and Highway University, Omsk, Russia

Most S.A.

The key role of human capital in the process of generating and adapting innovative solutions

Abstract. The article is devoted to the study of the role of the innovative component of human capital on a global scale. The study highlights not only the impact of professional skills, but also the importance of material aspects for stimulating innovation activity. The complexity of measuring human capital is emphasized due to its multi-layered nature. The author focuses on the importance of deep knowledge, extensive experience, professional skills and active participation for effective management of innovation processes. Various methodological and conceptual approaches to the assessment of innovation potential are considered, special attention is paid to its structural components and determinants, which determine the ability of an organization to introduce new products, technologies and solutions. The importance of adaptability and flexibility in the process of innovation management is emphasized, since the modern business environment is characterized by rapid changes and uncertainty.
Keywords: human capital, innovation, innovation potential, innovation process, innovative solutions, innovation factors, assessment of innovation potential, management of the innovation process. Highlights: - successful innovation management requires not only technical knowledge, but also the ability to stimulate creativity and manage change within the organization; - innovative potential is influenced by many factors and can be considered from various aspects, taking into account their complex nature; - effective management of the innovation process requires the availability of financial resources and intellectual capital, as well as a multi-dimensional view of the functioning of the organization.

Email:	s.most@bk.ru
Сведения:	Sergey A. Most - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMY

MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT