Вестник Самарского государственного экономического университета

Вестник самарского государственного экономического университета
Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics

2024 №11 (241)

ECONOMIC THEORY

Zhironkin S.A., Taran E.A., Konovalova M.E.

The concept of import substitution in Russia in conditions of increased external shocks and sanctions

Abstract. The article examines the issue of forming the import substitution concept in the context of increasing external shocks, which is relevant for the Russian economy at the current stage of development. It is based on understanding of import substitution as consistent changes in the reproductive, sectoral and industrial, market, technological, institutional structure of the economy, with the inclusion of public-private partnerships in the circle of subjects and "markets of the future" of the National Technology Initiative in the system of market priorities. The author`s methodology is formed by approaches to analyzing the place of import substitution in the system of structural changes, its typology and institutional support, and technological modernization of the real sector of the economy. The theoretical provisions that make up the concept of import substitution in the context of external shocks are presented by highlighting risks accompanying it (autarkiza-tion and technological backwardness, displacement from global value chains and rising inflation) and proposing ways to reduce them. They are the transition to the required institutional trajectory, the formation of the required institutional environment and the regime for its implementation, the use of organizational and financial instruments of public-private partnership for import substitution (tax, credit, investments). A special place in the article is given to the requirements to the methodology for assessing changes in the structure of import substitution as an element of its concept.
Keywords: import substitution, economic structure, concept, institutional environment, external shocks, resistance to shocks. Highlights: - approaches to analyzing the structural basis of import substitution are analyzed, changes in which are considered as the basis for the long-term stability of the economy to external shocks; - the work presents the concept of import substitution in the context of increasing external shocks and sanctions restrictions, including the import substitution typology, a list of subjects and forms, including public-private partnerships, neo-industrial principles, risks and ways to reduce them, necessary institutional trajectories and regime, methodology quantitative and qualitative assessment of changes in the structure of import substitution; - forms of public-private partnership for import substitution have been proposed (innovation and production alliance of business firms and government developers of advanced technologies; long-term contracts for the development, pilot production and replication of previously imported products being subject to sanctions; long-term investment partnership for the technological modernization of private enterprises), institutional environment and organizational, tax, credit and investment instruments for their implementation.

Email:	zhironkin@tpu.ru; ektaran@yandex.ru; mkonoval@mail.ru
Сведения:	Sergey A. Zhironkin, Ekaterina A. Taran - National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, Russia; Maria E. Konovalova - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMY

Eremina I.A., Vallask V. V.

Features of forecasting macroeconomic indicators based on the use of the mean-adjusted BVAR model

Abstract. The article investigates specific features of forecasting macroeconomic indicators using the mean-adjusted BVAR model. The BVAR model is widely used for analyzing economic time series, but its predictive ability can be improved by including an adjustment for the average value. The authors analyze the effectiveness of forecasting based on the mean-adjusted BVAR model using the example of various macroeconomic indicators. The study showed that the mean-adjusted BVAR model is more effective than other models for forecasting inflation, industrial production index and money supply. It copes particularly well with long-term forecasts and surpasses the traditional BVAR model due to the updated specification. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the systematic selection of the optimal hyperparameter for the a priori distribution of Minnesota and the comparison of the predictive power of mean-adjusted BVAR with competing models based on Russian data. The results of the work will help to improve the quality of economic forecasts and improve the efficiency of decision-making in an unstable economic environment.
Keywords: mean-adjusted BVAR, macroeconomic indicators, data, modeling, forecast, Minnesota prior distribution. Highlights: - macroeconomic data were collected and processed, and brought into a single standard format. After that, the sample was divided into educational, test, and training data sets; - the model was estimated on the training sample and a forecast was built, the hyperparameter of the prior distribution was optimized, the mean square forecast errors were calculated for each model, and the ratio of the mean square forecast errors was determined; - a comparative analysis of the forecast accuracy of the various models under study was conducted.

Email:	dokukina.orags@mail.ru; irenalks@mail.ru
Сведения:	Irina A. Eremina, Vladimir V. Vallask - Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia

Konkina VS., Filippov D.I,, Pravddina E.N.

State support as a factor in improving the efficiency of the dairy industry: a regional aspect

Abstract. The dairy industry in the Ryazan region demonstrates steady growth and development. There is an increase in milk the production and cow productivity. At the same time, there is an uneven development of the industry in the municipalities of the region. The article presents a grouping of municipalities of the Ryazan region according to the development level of the dairy cattle industry. The reasons for the current situation are revealed. The information base of the study was data from Ryazanstat, official information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Ryazan region. The existing measures of the state support in the dairy industry are presented. The statistics of the volume of state support for the industry and the growth rate of milk production in the context of federal districts are presented. Taking this into account, directions for improving the state agri-food policy are proposed.
Keywords: milk, dairy cattle industry, subsidies, government support, efficiency. Highlights: the dairy cattle industry of the Ryazan region demonstrates effective growth and development; - there is a serious differentiation of municipalities in terms of the development level of the dairy industry; - in the Ryazan region, there is a number of state support tools for the dairy industry, numbering 8 positions; - the authors have proposed 2 main areas of support for the dairy industry in the future.

Email:	konkina_v@mail.ru; epravdina@mail.ru
Сведения:	Vera S. Konkina - Ryazan State Agrotechnological University named after P.A. Kostychev, Ryazan, Russia; Dmitry I. Filippov, Elena N. Pravdina - Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Ryazan Region, Ryazan, Russia

Tsybatov V.A.

Comparative analysis of the development of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District based on the coefficient of significant development

Abstract. The article proposes the author`s methodology that allows comparing sections and classes of regional economies based on the important development coefficient (IDC), which takes into account labor productivity and its growth, as well as the local and federal significance of the compared classes of the economy. The methodology was successfully applied to determine the industry competitive advantages of sections and classes of regional economies of the Far Eastern Federal District and to form development priorities for the district as a whole on their basis.
Keywords: sections and classes of the economy, labor productivity, competitive advantages, significant development coefficient, development priorities, Far Eastern Federal District, FEFD. Highlights: - an analysis of foreign and domestic experience in determining priorities for sectoral development of specific territories, used in forecasting and strategic planning tasks, was conducted; - a methodology for comparative analysis of the development of sections and classes of regional economies of the Far Eastern Federal District is proposed based on the coefficient of significant development, taking into account labor productivity and its growth, as well as the local and federal significance of the compared classes of the economy; - quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of the development of classes of economies of the Far Eastern Federal District regions were obtained in the form of a table of values of the coefficient of significant development (IDC); - a top list of the most effectively developing classes of the Far Eastern Federal District economy according to the IDC rating was formed and a list of fast-growing significant classes of the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District regions was compiled.

Email:	tva82@yandex.ru
Сведения:	Vladimir A. Tsybatov - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

Bulycheva E. V.

The role of social credits at the present stage

Abstract. At the stage of the structural transformation of the Russian economy, the need for social credit is increasing. The effective fulfillment of the social role of credits will contribute to improving the well-being of the population and the development of the economy as a whole. This is especially true for the population of contemporary Russia, which has become very vulnerable in the face of new challenges of the time. The purpose of the article is to define social credit, consider its varieties and analyze its role, justify measures to improve this type of credit relations. When writingthe article, situational and systematic approaches of scientific research were used, including the analysis of publications on the problem of social loans, as a result of which the definition of social credit was formulated. In addition, based on the analysis of statistical data, an assessment of the effectiveness of the role performed by social credit was given. The results of the analysis demonstrated the insufficiently effective functioning of modern social credits, which is confirmed by their low social effect. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the assessment and determination of the place of modern social credits. The obtained research results can be applied in the improvement of social credits to increase the positive social effect and expand the socially oriented activities of banks.
Keywords: social credit, the role of credit, preferential credit, social effect, loans with state support. Highlights: - in modern conditions, the need for social credits is increasing; - existing credit products do not perform a social role effectively enough; - it is necessary to modernize credit banking products to strengthen their social role.

Email:	helleno4ka@mail.ru
Сведения:	Elena V. Bulycheva - Orenburg State University, Orenburg, Russia

Veretyokhin A.V.

Digital transformation as a key determinant of digital development management of an industrial enterprise

Abstract. In the context of the formation of the digital economy, the heads of industrial enterprises are forced to introduce digital technologies into all areas of the organization`s activities, i.e. to carry out the digital development of companies. In this regard, a lot of works of the world scientific community are aimed primarily at problems and results of enterprises using diverse digital tools, including changing business models, ways of creating value, etc. The purpose of this work is to attribute the digital development of an industrial enterprise and identify, using empirical data, the key role of digital transformation as a determinant of managing the development of an organization. The research is based on analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction, dichotomy, tabular and graphical methods, as well as on the laws of formal logic and data from open sources. The paper presents the author`s interpretation of the digital development of an industrial enterprise, taking into account the managerial aspect. Digital transformation and digitalization are proposed as dichotomous types of digital development. They are given a brief description. It is noted that, based on their characteristics and the expediency of using resources, for the same object during a separate period of time, the company`s management should carry out one of the dichotomous types of digital development or sequentially alternate them. Continuity, constancy, regularity/periodicity, and diversity are proposed as the main attributes of the digital transformation. The typology of digital development of an industrial enterprise in the coordinate system "level of digital development - time" is presented. The main data on the digital development of organizations are presented, confirming the priority of digital transformation for managing the development of an enterprise in modern conditions.
Keywords: digital transformation, management, management of organization, industrial enterprise, enterprise development, digitalization, digital technology, digital economy. Highlights: - the author`s interpretation of the term of «digital development of industrial enterprise" in the managerial aspect is given; - dichotomous types of digital development, such as digital transformation and digitalization, are proposed; - the typology of digital development of an industrial enterprise in the coordinate system of «digital development level - time» is presented; - the priority of digital transformation for the management of enterprise development in modern conditions is substantiated.

Email:	v_a_v_crimea@mail.ru
Сведения:	Andrey V. Veretyokhin - V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Simferopol, Russia

Golubev A.S.

Assessment of the quality of staff motivation in the change management system at a textile enterprise

Abstract. Effective management of organizational changes at an industrial enterprise requires an increase in the quality of employees` motivation based on a comprehensive assessment of its parameters. The article reveals the author`s understanding of the approach to assessing the quality of personnel motivation in the organizational change management system and the results of its testing at a textile enterprise. The purpose of the article is to substantiate and demonstrate possibilities of quantitative measurements and assessment of employees` motivation to implement organizational changes at an industrial enterprise. The current and potential stability of motivation are distinguished. A new formula for organizational changes has been developed. It differs from R. Burkhard`s formula by taking into account the importance of motives and the need for differentiated management of types of motivational stability and changes. The role and place of each motivation quality parameter in the organizational change management system is identified. A technology has been created for measuring synergistic motivational effects and damages based on the phenomenon of polystructural motives. Quantitative measurements of the quality of motivation of managers, specialists and workers of a textile enterprise were carried out. As a result of the study, the author draws a conclusion about the underdevelopment of motivation management for organizational changes at a textile enterprise, and the practical usefulness of the proposed methodology for reducing the severity of this socio-economic problem.
Keywords: quality of motivation, organizational changes, formula for change, polystructural nature of motives, integral synergistic motivational effect. Highights: - quantitative assessment of motivation is an important element of the organizational change management system at an industrial enterprise; - effective management of organizational change requires ensuring acceptable levels and ratios of satisfaction and dissatisfaction with work, positive and negative forces of motivation, current and potential stability of motivation; - a current and promising direction for the development of quantitative assessments of personnel motivation is the determination of synergistic motivational effects and damages; - the methodology for quantitative assessment of the quality of staff motivation for organizational changes is suitable for practical use at industrial enterprises in the system of innovative management.

Email:	golubewalex@bk.ru
Сведения:	Alexander S. Golubev - Ivanovo State University, Ivanovo, Russia

Strizhkov V.A.

A study of the development of risk management in Russian companies as an instrument for strengthening their competitiveness

Abstract. The article provides an overview of the approaches presented in various studies to identify critical risks of companies. The necessity of applying standards in risk management within the framework of entrepreneurial activity has been confirmed. The analysis of the development of risk management at enterprises in Samara and the Samara region is carried out.
Keywords: risk management, risk standardization, competition. Highlights: - there is an opinion that competitive risks should be considered as a separate group of risks, under the influence of which an enterprise can only lose its position in the market, but not be liquidated; - it is necessary to identify the main critical risks and use corporate standards for systemic risk management; - in the local risk management, it is very important to keep a documented record of possible negative events within the framework of operational risk management.

Email:	sva1978@osmail.ru
Сведения:	Vladislav A. Strizhkov - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

FINANCE, MONEY CIRCULA TON AND CREDIT

Usoltseva I.V., Okuneva A.G.

Improving the methodology of project analysis and evaluation for project financing

Abstract. In this article, by studying the theory and research of the direction of bank project financing, as well as analyzing the methodology for evaluating investment projects by Sberbank PJSC, recommendations have been developed to improve methodological tools for evaluating residential investment projects by the bank in order to implement project financing based on the identified shortcomings of the existing methodology. Among the latter, it was noted, in particular, the lack of a necessary assessment of the demand for the project directly for the population, on which the return of financing from the borrower to the lender depends.
Keywords: project financing, investment project, methodological tools, commercial bank. Highlights: - the developed proposals will not only increase the number of loans issued, but also prevent the occurrence of overdue payments; - as part of the analysis of the existing methodology, it is necessary to improve the mechanism for evaluating investment projects for project financing.

Email:	xcontrastxyjes@gmail.com; okuneva_alla@list.ru
Сведения:	Irina V. Usoltseva, Alla G. Okuneva - Samara National Research University named after Academician S.P. Korolev, Samara, Russia

100

ECONOMIC THEORY

REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMY

MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

FINANCE, MONEY CIRCULA TON AND CREDIT