Вестник Самарского государственного экономического университета

Вестник самарского государственного экономического университета
Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics

2022 №9 (215)

ECONOMIC THEORY

Oborin M.S., Gorodilov М.А.

Conceptual directions of adaptation of the agro-industrial complex to a new technological environment

Abstract. As a result of political and trade-economic transformations in Russia and other countries, the nature of interaction has changed significantly, as far as agriculture is concerned. The agro-industrial complex of the country cannot develop at a high pace due to the influence of not only external, but also internal reasons: outdated technical equipment, lack of financial resources, underdevelopment of human capital, lack of qualified personnel, volatility of prices for agricultural products and others. It is necessary to activate mechanisms for adapting the development of various forms of the agricultural activity based on the implementation of measures of the state control system and stabilization of domestic agribusiness on a single conceptual basis, which makes it possible to increase the efficiency of the industry`s adaptation to the new technological environment. The research purpose is to form conceptual directions that ensure the consistency of strategic goals and tools for the preparation and adaptation of various forms of the agricultural activity in the new environment. Monographic, analytical, abstract-logical methods, generalization method, modeling are used in this article. The study showed that macroeconomic and geopolitical transformation of the existing relationships led to a number of changes taking place both in the country and within the framework of interstate cooperation, the agro-industrial complex of the Russian economy was under pressure from unfavorable mac-roeconomic factors. The influence of systemic problems of the agro-industrial sector is increasing, expressed in the low material and technical level of enterprises, financial instability of agribusiness entities, personnel problems, price imbalances. In this regard, effective mechanisms of adaptation of the agro-industrial complex to the prevailing realities on a new conceptual basis are needed. The current conditions are a new strategic opportunity for the agro-industrial complex of the country, the basis of which is represented by a systematic innovation process provided by rational management decisions. Conceptual directions should be implemented consistently by management levels in the conditions of qualitative forecasting and modeling of agricultural targets in various subjects of the country.
Keywords: conceptual directions, agro-industrial complex, agribusiness entities, adaptation, technological environment Highlights: ♦ determination of technological limitations of intensification of the development of the agro-industrial complex; ♦ assessment of the level of manufacturability and development of agricultural innovations; ♦ development of a conceptual model of development stages of the concept for the preparation of agricultural entities to new economic conditions; ♦ development of key strategic directions for the adaptation of different forms of the agricultural activity and production.

Email:	recreachin@rambler.ru; gorodilov59@yandex.ru
Сведения:	Matvey S. Oborin - Perm State National Research University, Perm, Russia, Perm Institute (branch) Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Perm, Russia, Perm State Agrarian and Technological University named after Academician D.N. Pryanishnikov, Perm, Russia; Michael А. Gorodilov - Perm State National Research University, Perm, Russia

Perepelkina E.V., Perepelkin V.A.

Possibilities of the progressive structural transformation of the Russian economy

Abstract. The problem of implementing structural changes in the economy has received much attention in current scientific publications. At the same time, there are few studies that quantitatively analyze the relationship between the accumulation of human capital in the country and the structural transformation of its economy which serves to get rid of the existing structural imbalances. The presence of significant mineral deposits often has not only a positive, but also a negative impact on the national economy, which can be affected by the size and quality of the country`s human potential and the effectiveness of its use. The article examines the structural transformation of the Russian economy using a three-component sector model "primary-secondary-tertiary". The presented results of the study will add to the still rather limited list of scientific literature, which reveals the relationship between the country`s human capital and structural changes in its economy. The goal is to justify the process of human capital accumulation as the main opportunity to overcome dependence on the extraction and export of raw materials. Following the three-sector model of the post-industrial type created on the basis of statistical data for twenty years, a comparative analysis of the trajectory of the structural development of the Russian economy was carried out which showed the possibility of giving it a more progressive direction through the intensification of the accumulation of human capital. The study revealed an important feedback for the process of structural transformation of changes in the shares of nature-intensive primary and human-intensive tertiary sectors.
Keywords: structural transformation, human capital, structural shifts, sectors, commodity dependence, Dutch disease, commodity curse Highlights: ♦ the theoretical foundations of the econometric model for ensuring progressive shifts in the process of structural transformation of the economy are disclosed; ♦ the content of the intersectoral shifts that have taken place in the Russian economy is assessed; ♦ substantiates the need for the state to conduct a selective structural policy aimed at expanding the reproduction of human capital; ♦ the parameters of the model of structural shifts in the Russian and Norwegian economies are described with the interpretation of the results of the calculation; ♦ measures to overcome the dependence on the results of the exploitation of disposable raw materials by stimulating the accumulation of human capital are proposed.

Email:	e.perepelkina@outlook.com; slavaap@rambler.ru
Сведения:	Elena V. Perepelkina - Index Intelligence GmbH, Frankfurt, Germany; Viacheslav A. Perepelkin - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

WORLD ECONOMICS

Blinichkina N.Yu., Marufov F.K.

Strategy for developing the export potential of the regions

Abstract. The article investigates the export potential of the Sughd region of the Republic of Tajikistan in terms of the possibility of ensuring further economic growth of the region and ensuring its economic security. It is necessary to conduct an analysis based on a certain algorithm that allows assessing the existing features of the region`s foreign economic activity, identifying unused opportunities and developing proposals for improving the policy of the region`s authorities in supporting export-oriented industries. Based on the analysis of the manufacturing sector and exports of the Sughd region of the Republic of Tajikistan, proposals were made to adjust the export and investment policy in order to create conditions for the further economic development of the region and ensure its economic security. In particular, it is proposed to pay special attention to the use of the potential of the Sughd free economic zone, as well as to provide information and financial support to entrepreneurs interested in participating in foreign economic activity. In addition, it was determined that at the current stage it is necessary to focus on the development of exports of cotton fabrics, raw silk and salt, which are the most promising products for export from the Sughd region. Proposals were put forward on directions for diversifying exports and creating an internal production base for this purpose.
Keywords: regional export policy, export potential, export structure, export diversification, economic security of the region, export-oriented production, regional development, export development factors Highlights: ♦ the issue of developing the export potential of the Sughd region of the Republic of Tajikistan was considered; ♦ an analysis of the structure of production and exports of the Sughd region of the Republic of Tajikistan was carried out; ♦ the most promising areas for the development of export potential were identified taking into account the presence of export development factors; ♦ measures to develop the export potential of the Sughd region of the Republic of Tajikistan were proposed.

Email:	n.blinichkina@mail.ru; fedos.11@mail.ru
Сведения:	Nadezhda Yu. Blinichkina1, Firdavsjon K. Marufov - Tajik State University of Law, Business and Politics, Khujand, Republic of Tajikistan

Kozhukhova V.V.

Identification of risk mitigation mechanisms within the framework of the development of Russian branches of the New Silk Road

Abstract. The relevance of the research topic is due to the novelty of the problem, as well as the exceptional importance of monitoring threats to the regional economic security in the context of the development of the national economy and strengthening global economic ties within the framework of Russia`s participation in the New Silk Road initiative. The problem of ensuring the regional economic security becomes even more significant under the influence of the pandemic, anti-Russian sanctions, as well as the increasing likelihood of military conflicts. However, despite the importance of economic security issues, the methodology for quantifying non-financial risks of regional economic security still needs to be developed. In addition, the definition of the essence of the concept of "regional economic security" requires additional specification. In this regard, the purpose of the study is to develop a system of quantitative indicators for assessing non-financial risks and threats to the economic security of the regions of the Russian Federation and to identify promising mechanisms for mitigating regional economic security risks in the context of the development of Russian transport corridors of the New Silk Road. As part of the study, the decomposition of key risks and threats to regional economic security was carried out, a set of indicators was proposed that allow a quantitative assessment of ESG risks of the economic security at the level of individual territorial entities.
Keywords: regional economic security, threats to economic security, the New Silk Road, indicators of regional economic security, risk mitigation mechanisms, non-financial risks, environmental risks, social risks, governance risks Highlights: ♦ decomposition of factors and threats to regional economic security has been carried out; ♦ a system of indicators for assessing ESG risks and threats to regional economic security is proposed; ♦ the main directions of mitigation of regional economic security risks in the context of the development of international cooperation within the framework of the implementation of the New Silk Road project have been identified.

Email:	viktoriaart1995@gmail.com
Сведения:	Victoriia V. Kozhukhova - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

Kurnikova M.V., Khmeleva G.A., Toth B.I.

Structural dynamic analysis of Hungary`s trade and economic cooperation with neighbouring states

Abstract. Cross-border trade and trade and economic cooperation with neighbouring countries has traditionally been recognized as both a driving force and an important consequence of cross-border cooperation. In the case of Hungary, which is used as the object of the study, the involvement of neighboring states into the single European market increases the common economic interests on both sides of the border and improves conditions for the implementation of the "neighbourhood policy» aiming at the implementation of joint projects and programs. This study provides a detailed analysis of the current situation and prospects of implementing the trade and economic cooperation of Hungary with neighboring states and the assessment of the role of the border factor in this process. Aiming to achieve this goal, the authors conducted a structural and dynamic analysis of the Hungarian foreign trade indicators: exports, imports of goods and services, the balance of foreign trade turnover and the ratio of import coverage by exports. The main conclusions based on statistical data are: the high degree of openness of the Hungarian economy and its dependence on the indicators of foreign trade, geographical concentration of trade and economic cooperation of Hungary, the effectiveness of national export support institutions.
Keywords: Hungary, neighbouring states, trade and economic cooperation, neighbourhood policy, export supporting institutions Highlights: ♦ the strategic location in Europe, easy access to the EU markets, a highly skilled and educated labour force, and a reliable infrastructure make the Hungarian economy attractive to external trade partners and investors; ♦ the development of trade and economic relations between Hungary and neighbouring states has always been influenced by historical ties and geographical similarities of the territory and are currently being strengthened by a European integration processes within European regional cooperation programmes; ♦ in view of the high geographical concentration of Hungary`s foreign trade, Hungary`s economy is highly dependent on favourable international trade conditions and is highly susceptible to world economic crises.

Email:	mvkurnikova@gmail.com; galina.a.khmeleva@yandex.ru; toth.balazs.istvan@uni-sopron.hu
Сведения:	Marina V. Kurnikova, Galina A. Khmeleva Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia; Balazs Istvan Toth - University of Sopron, Sopron, Hungary

Frants M.V.

How they live under sanctions? Iran`s experience

Abstract. The study deals with the world practice of imposing economic sanctions by some states against others, including factors affecting the achievement of the goals set by the initiator of the sanctions pressure. Close attention is paid to the Iranian case, including an analysis of its main macroeconomic indicators, counter-sanctions measures, as well as quantitative measurement of the impact of sanctions on the Iranian economy. The work is based on the study of scientific literature devoted to the topic of sanctions pressure as a tool for achieving foreign policy goals, as well as on the analysis of the dynamics of Iran`s macroeconomic indicators published by the Central Bank of Iran and the World Bank. The observation period is 1978-2020. It is revealed that sanctions are far from always successful, and their effectiveness is influenced by a number of factors, including the scale of the goal, the relationship between the initiator and the target before the sanctions episode, the duration of the sanctions, the political regime and the state of the economy in the target country. An analysis of the dynamics of Iran`s macroeconomic indicators has shown that living under sanctions means high inflation, a significant devaluation of the national currency, and a slowdown in the economic development. However, in the long term, there are also positive aspects: technological development, economic diversification, and the growth of non-oil and gas exports.
Keywords: Iran, the USA, sanctions, counter-sanctions measures, macroeconomic indicators, economic damage Highlights: ♦ the use of economic sanctions by one state against others in order to achieve certain economic and political goals is a common phenomenon in recent history; ♦ the success of the application of economic sanctions depends on a number of factors; ♦ the history of sanctions pressure on Iran goes back more than 40 years, including several periods of strengthening and weakening; ♦ high inflation, significant devaluation of the national currency, low rates of the economic development and significant volatility in the dynamics of Iran`s economic indicators are characteristic of almost the entire period of the sanctions pressure; ♦ in the long term, there were also positive effects of the sanctions pressure: technological development, economic diversification, growth of non-oil and gas exports formed as a result of the policy of self-sufficiency.

Email:	tan-marina@mail.ru
Сведения:	Marina V. Frants - Institute of Social and Economic Researches of Ufa Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russia

FINANCE, MONETARY CIRCULATION AND CREDIT

Guzhev D.A.

Assessment of the impact of the cash flow of capital investments on the internal rate of return of the investment project

Abstract. The revelance of the study is that in the modern domestic and foreign literature about the internal rate of return, the issue of the influence of the variability of the valuation of the cash flow of capital investments on the IRR indicator of the investment project has not been worked out. Problem statement: due to insufficient research on the impact of the assessment of the cash flow variability of capital investments on one of the most important indicators of the investment project - IRR, there is a feasibility of working out the indicated issue.
Keywords: internal rate of return (IRR), investment project, indicators of investment efficiency, cash flow of capital investments Highlights: ♦ review of current domestic and foreign studies of IRR has done; ♦ the method of IRR calculation in three scenarios of the investment project implementation is proposed: basic, optimistic and pessimistic ones and an example of one implemented investment project at the stage of feasibility study of investments by the proposed method; ♦ analysis of the impact cash flow determination variability of capital investments on the IRR of investment project has been completed.

Email:	guzhevd@yandex.ru
Сведения:	Dmitrii A. Guzhev - BRICS University (UniBRICS), Moscow, Russia

Kandrashina E.A., Repina E.G., Belov A.A.

Collateral security repayment of loans: innovative approach

Abstract. The relevance of the study of the collateral system of repayment of loans is because banking organizations need a productive mechanism to counteract the occurrence of all kinds of risks, including the risk of default of the borrower and the risk of increasing overdue debt. The elements of strategic risk management are professionally structured credit procedures and, in general, credit policy, high-quality management of the loan portfolio and effective credit control. The article examines the collateral policy of the leader of the banking sector of the Russian Federation - Sberbank PJSC. The factors that determine the level of еру credit risk and the degree of creditworthiness of the borrower are characterized, the main stages of working with collateral are considered. The calculated estimate of the correlation coefficient between the level of collateral and the amount of overdue debt was condusted. Innovative mechanisms for managing the bank`s collateral portfolio allow maximizing the security of credit funds, and as a result, reducing financial losses. The technological transformation of Sberbank`s risk management based on an artificial intelligence algorithm has significantly increased the volume of the loan portfolio while minimizing the level of overdue debt and a high level of collateral for the loan portfolio with property. This practice demonstrates the effectiveness of innovations when working with collateral assets.
Keywords: credit, collateral, risk management strategy, technological innovations Highlights: ♦ banking organizations need a productive mechanism to counter the occurrence of all kinds of risks, including the risk of default of the borrower and the risk of an increase in overdue debt; ♦ the factors determining the level of credit risk and the degree of creditworthiness of the borrower should be taken into account in the process of working with collateral; ♦ innovative mechanisms for managing the bank`s collateral portfolio allow maximizing the security of credit funds, and as a result, reducing financial losses.

Email:	kandrashina@sseu.ru; violet261181@mail.ru; artem-belov2000.belov@yandex.ru
Сведения:	Elena A. Kandrashina, Evgeniya G. Repina, Artem A. Belov - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

ECONOMIC THEORY

WORLD ECONOMICS

FINANCE, MONETARY CIRCULATION AND CREDIT