Possibilities of the progressive structural transformation of the Russian economy
Abstract. The problem of implementing structural changes in the economy has received much attention in current scientific publications. At the same time, there are few studies that quantitatively analyze the relationship between the accumulation of human capital in the country and the structural transformation of its economy which serves to get rid of the existing structural imbalances. The presence of significant mineral deposits often has not only a positive, but also a negative impact on the national economy, which can be affected by the size and quality of the country`s human potential and the effectiveness of its use. The article examines the structural transformation of the Russian economy using a three-component sector model "primary-secondary-tertiary". The presented results of the study will add to the still rather limited list of scientific literature, which reveals the relationship between the country`s human capital and structural changes in its economy. The goal is to justify the process of human capital accumulation as the main opportunity to overcome dependence on the extraction and export of raw materials. Following the three-sector model of the post-industrial type created on the basis of statistical data for twenty years, a comparative analysis of the trajectory of the structural development of the Russian economy was carried out which showed the possibility of giving it a more progressive direction through the intensification of the accumulation of human capital. The study revealed an important feedback for the process of structural transformation of changes in the shares of nature-intensive primary and human-intensive tertiary sectors.
Keywords: structural transformation, human capital, structural shifts, sectors, commodity dependence, Dutch disease, commodity curse
Highlights:
♦ the theoretical foundations of the econometric model for ensuring progressive shifts in the process of structural transformation of the economy are disclosed;
♦ the content of the intersectoral shifts that have taken place in the Russian economy is assessed;
♦ substantiates the need for the state to conduct a selective structural policy aimed at expanding the reproduction of human capital;
♦ the parameters of the model of structural shifts in the Russian and Norwegian economies are described with the interpretation of the results of the calculation;
♦ measures to overcome the dependence on the results of the exploitation of disposable raw materials by stimulating the accumulation of human capital are proposed.
Elena V. Perepelkina - Index Intelligence GmbH, Frankfurt, Germany; Viacheslav A. Perepelkin - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia