Forecast conceptual model of interdependence of investment attractiveness and innovative activity of the Samara Region

The paper proposes and tests a forecast model based on the regional statistics, which reveals the mutual dependence of investment attractiveness and innovation activity in the Samara Region. The theoretical and methodological framework of the study is based on the neoclassical tradition, the Schumpeterian interpretation of innovation development, the triple helix model, and the institutional approach. The author's model includes four feedback loops through which the regional system can shift to cumulative growth or remain in a stagnant trajectory. The empirical validation was conducted using data from the Samara Region for 2019–2023, employing regression modeling. The calculated results demonstrate high accuracy, with a MAPE value of 1,8%. The study confirms the two-way nature of the relationship, where a 1% increase in investment is accompanied by a 0,6–0,7% increase in innovation activity, and a 0,5–0,6% increase in innovation output leads to an additional 0,5–0,6% increase in investment a year later. The forecast for 2024–2029 indicates a steady average annual growth rate of 8–8,5%. It was found out that the Samara region is moving from the "territory of increased attention" group to the "territory of confident development" group. The expediency of forming a specialized institute has been confirmed, the task of which will be the real unification of investment and innovation channels. The proposals have been prepared to launch a mechanism for early detection of threats and prompt adjustment of regional processes during the period of external fluctuations.

1. Investments in Russia, 2025 : statistical collection / Rosstat. Moscow, 2025. 163 p.

2. Golubeva A.S., Pavlova E.A. The relationship between the level of socio‑economic development and the innovative and investment potential of the region // Economy. Right. Innovations. 2024. No. 4. Pp. 4–20. doi:10.17586/2713-1874-2024-4-4-20.

3. Pyankova A.Yu., Mustafaeva S.R. On the state of innovation management in the Russian Federation in the current context of uncertainty // Humanities, Socio-Economic and Social Sciences. 2024. No. 4. Pp. 238–243. doi: 10.23672/SAE.2024.4.4.026.

4. Yarkova T.M. Innovation and investment as an imperative for Russia’s economic development // Issues of Innovative Economy. 2024. Vol. 14, No. 3. Pp. 753–768. doi:10.18334/vinec.14.3.121566.

5. Volodina S.G. Dynamics and differentiation of innovation activity in Russian regions: a comparative analysis // Issues of Innovative Economy. 2026. Vol. 16, No. 3. doi:10.18334/vinec.16.3.126358.

6. Davletshina I.V. Innovations as a driver of the region’s investment attractiveness: tools and methods of stimulation // Vestnik GUU. 2024. No. 9. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/innovatsii-kak-drayver-razvitiya-investitsionnoy-privlekatelnosti-regiona-instrumenty-i-metody-stimulirovaniya (date of access: 03.06.2026).

7. Solow R.M. Contribution to the theory of economic growth // Quarterly Economic Journal. 1956. Vol. 70, No. 1. Pp. 65–94.

8. Coe D.T., Helpman E., Hoffmaister A.V. International spillover effects and institutions in R&D // European Economic Review. 2009. Vol. 53, No. 7. Pp. 723–741.

9. Granberg A.G. Fundamentals of regional economics : textbook for universities / State University Higher School of Economics. Moscow : Publishing House of the State University Higher School of Economics, 2004. 495 p.

10. Schumpeter J.A. Theory of economic development : A study of entrepreneurial profit, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle) : [translated from German]. Moscow : Progress, 1982. 455 p.

11. Florida R. The rise of the creative class: [translated from English]. New York : Basic Books, 2002. 416 p.

12. Cantwell J., Pisciottello L. The geography of technological activity of TNCs in European regions : The role of secondary effects and local competencies // Journal of International Management. 2005. Vol. 11, No. 2. Pp. 155–181.

13. The impact of innovative activity and scientific research on the investment attractiveness of a region / O.E. Podverbnykh, A.A. Lukyanova, E.V. Belyakova [et al.] // Moscow Economic Journal. 2022. No. 4. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/vliyanie-innovatsionnoy-aktivnosti-i-nauchnoy-deyatelnosti-na-investitsionnuyu-privlekatelnost-regiona (date of access: 22.06.2026).

14. Freeman K. Technological changes and the world economy // Social Sciences and Humanities: Domestic and foreign literature. Ser. 2, Economics. 1995. No. 2. Pp. 25–50.

15. Grigoriev R. . Granger causality for global exchanges: multiple solutions // Space of Economics. 2019. No. 3. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/greynzherovskaya-prichinnost-dlya-mirovyh-birzh-mnozhestvo-resheniy (date of access: 22.06.2026).

16. Rating of Innovative Development of the Subjects of the Russian Federation. 10th Issue / National Research University "Higher School of Economics", Institute of Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge. URL: https://issek.hse.ru/news/1068199937.html (date of access: 22.06.2026).