Blockchain predicts operational financial inclusion, not satisfaction: evidence from Nigeria

Nigeria set a target of ninety-five percent adult financial inclusion by 2024 under the Central Bank of Nigeria’s National Financial Inclusion Strategy 3.0; the target was not met, and the North-West zone retained 47% exclusion against 5% in the South-West zone [1]. Blockchain-based banking services have since entered Nigerian commercial banking at institutional scale through the Zone network and allied fintech platforms. Whether the service attributes of these systems move operational financial inclusion, customer satisfaction, or both remain unresolved, and the two outcomes imply different management priorities. This study examines data from 423 active commercial bank customers in Lagos (n = 250) and Kano (n = 173), collected in 2025. Multiple regression and multi-group Z-tests after Paternoster et al. [2] are applied, with five blockchain attributes (Security, Transparency, Decentralization operationalized as perceived accessibility without institutional gatekeeping, Transaction Speed, Cost Efficiency) modelled as formative composite predictors of operational Financial Inclusion and Customer Satisfaction separately. Results indicate that blockchain attributes explain 36.4% of variance in operational Financial Inclusion against 3.1% of variance in Customer Satisfaction, with Transparency (b = 0.349, p < 0.001) and Decentralization (b = 0.318, p < 0.001) as the dominant positive predictors in all subsamples. Z-tests find no significant coefficient differences between Lagos and Kano on any tested path, while descriptive baselines diverge sharply (operational Financial Inclusion mean 3.940 against 2.942). The study concludes that in this sample and pre-adoption environment, blockchain attributes behave as participation-oriented predictors more than satisfaction-oriented predictors, that the mechanism is structurally equivalent across Nigeria’s digital banking spectrum, and that closing the North-South gap requires lifting the institutional baseline alongside technology design.

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