The dual nature of blockchain amid fragmentation and regionalization of global finance

Amid escalating geo-economic fragmentation and diverging regulatory regimes, block-chain technology occupies a dual position. On one hand, it offers a technically neutral foundation for global finance. On the other, its implementation and regulation create new boundaries, contributing to the emergence of isolated fintech clusters. The aim of this study is to identify the dual role of blockchain as both a driver of fragmentation and a potential enabler of global financial integration. The methodological framework comprises a comparative analysis for regulatory frameworks (EU, US, China, BRICS), a tech-no-functional analysis for key blockchain projects (Ethereum, Solana, BSN, Hyperledger), and scenario-based forecasting. The results reveal that regulatory divergences create “soft” barriers, giving rise to distinct clusters with varying functional efficiency: decentralized systems demonstrate high throughput and low costs within clusters, yet cross-cluster interaction faces regulatory and technological constraints. Based on the findings, three future scenarios are proposed: dominance of a single model, consolidation of separate blocs, and the emergence of dominant technological bridges. The applicability of the results lies in informing digital finance regulation strategies and international cooperation in fintech. The limitations include the dynamic nature of regulatory changes and the absence of long-term empirical data on cluster performance. Future research directions include quantitative assessment of the economic effects of cross-cluster interaction.

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