The impact of key external shocks on the Russian bond market

In the modern global economy, the government bond market performs a critically important function, acting simultaneously as a tool for financing budget expenditures, a mechanism for implementing monetary policy and an indicator of macroeconomic stability. However, in recent years, this market has faced unprecedented challenges due to the increasing frequency of external shocks of various nature. In this context, external shocks are understood as exogenous events that have a significant impact on the economy and financial markets: geopolitical conflicts (for example, sanction pressure on Russia from 2022), global pandemics (COVID-19), drastic changes in the monetary policy of leading central banks (the Fed tightening cycle in 2022–2023), as well as structural crises in the global financial system. These factors lead to increased volatility in financial markets, rising yields and, as a result, an increase in the cost of servicing government debt. The relevance of government bond market research in the context of external shocks is due to the increasing instability of the global economy caused by geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, changes in the monetary policy of leading central banks and climate crises. These factors have a significant impact on the profitability, liquidity and reliability of debt instruments, which is especially important for investors, regulators and issuers. Studying the reaction of the government bond market to external shocks makes it possible to develop effective risk management strategies, predict possible crises, and form a sustainable debt policy. Under conditions of sanction pressure and high volatility, the analysis for this topic becomes crucial for ensuring financial stability both at the national and international levels.

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