Modeling an assessment of the global effect of «green» financing for sustainable development

   This article examines the impact of «green» finance in the context of sustainable development.

   The objective of the study is to develop and test a methodological approach to assessing the consolidated impact of «green» finance instruments on the level and dynamics of environmental debt.

   The key measurable variable is the aggregated indicator of environmental debt, reflecting the cumulative anthropogenic pressure on the natural environment.

   The subject of the study is a set of indicators characterizing the state of the environment and the indicators influencing it.

   The most important of these, along with green investments, GDP dynamics, and urbanization, is the business complexity index. As a result of the modeling, the authors substantiated the existence of a stable relationship between the effectiveness of «green» finance and the observed results of sustainable development, which is determined by the level of business complexity. The business complexity index, reflecting the regulatory, administrative, and organizational conditions under which companies operate, is used as a key institutional factor. It is shown that a decrease in this index is
associated with an increase in companies' environmental debt, which is due to a limited ability to effectively attract and utilize green financing instruments. Conversely, a higher level of business complexity promotes institutional discipline, increased transparency, and greater environmental responsibility, leading to a reduction in environmental debt. It appears that the authors have successfully attempted to model the expected effect of attracting «green» financing by corporate entities across various economic sectors and countries in mitigating their environmental debt.

   The scientific novelty of the study lies in the uniqueness of the model functions constructed for each of the dependent variables, which are influenced by the aforementioned financial and macroeconomic independent variables. According to the researchers, this generates environmental debt – a financially measurable indicator of such impact.

   The practical significance of the study lies in the potential use of the proposed model to substantiate strategic decisions in the areas of climate policy, natural resource management, and the development of sustainable financing mechanisms.

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