Development of the model for assessing macroeconomic stability

Abstract

The article is devoted to the construction of a model for assessing the macroeconomic situation of a country. The relevance of the topic under study is due to the significant level of uncertainty that characterizes the modern Russian economy. The high level of uncertainty greatly complicates the processes of forecasting economic indicators and decision-making. Such studies are important in developing effective strategies for sustainable development. The crisis assessment model is a tool capable of systematically measuring and analyzing the level of instability in the economy. The use of crisis indicators makes it possible to identify early signals of approaching economic crises, adjust approaches to planning and forecasting, and reduce the risks of errors in decision-making. The introduction examines a wide range of existing approaches to building models for assessing the level of economic stress, such as the logistic crisis probability model, the financial stress index, the Markov switching model, and dynamic differential equations. The author's model is based on the method of aggregation of normalized indicators, considering their weight coefficients. The data normalization is carried out using the "Z-normalization" method. The weighting coefficients were determined by the algorithm of step-by-step exclusion of factors from the target model. The model considered the indicators characterizing the general state of the country's economy, the state of the banking sector, foreign trade, the labor market and the stock market. The data from the official statistics of the Bank of Russia and the Federal State Statistics Service for the period 2004–2019 were used. Using the developed model, the crisis index forecast for 2020–2025 was made. Based on the results obtained, two intervals of the crisis state of the Russian economy were identified.