The impact of investors` expectations regarding monetary policy on the bond market dynamics
Abstract. Investors` expectations play a key role in shaping the dynamics of the bond market, especially in the context of monetary policy instability and macroeconomic uncertainty. In recent years, the Russian financial market has faced unprecedented challenges, including sanctions pressure, key rate volatility, and high inflation. Under such circumstances, the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the forecasts of market participants become critical factors affecting bond yields, liquidity, and demand patterns. Studying the relationship between investors` expectations and debt market dynamics allows not only to understand better pricing mechanisms, but also develop effective strategies for market participants.
Keywords: bond market, investors` expectations, federal loan bonds, corporate bonds, key rate.
Highlights:
- the analysis for the main monetary policy instruments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and their impact on the debt market is carried out;
- the assessment of the relationship between the Central Bank decisions and changes in the yields of government and corporate bonds has been carried out;
- the role of macroeconomic indicators (inflation, GDP, unemployment) in shaping investor expectations is investigated;
- the practical recommendations have been developed for market participants, taking into account the identified patterns.
Nailya R. Ginyatullina, Efim G. Semyashkin - Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia