Main approaches to the analysis and forecasting of the dividend policy of companies
Abstract. The objective of this work is to develop a model capable of forecasting the probability of changes in dividend payments based on the analysis of the company`s financial indicators. An analysis of existing scientific approaches to forecasting dividend payments, including signaling theory, agency cost theory, behavioral factors, etc., is conducted. Particular attention is paid to the influence of financial indicators (return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity, free cash flow (FCF), revenue growth rate, etc.) on dividend payment decisions. The relevance of the study is due to the need to develop tools for forecasting dividend policy, which is especially important for investors and financial analysts in the context of market instability. A methodology for constructing a model based on logistic regression, which can be used to assess the probability of changes in dividend payments, is proposed and tested. The results of the work are theoretical in nature and can serve as a basis for further applied research. Practical recommendations are given for choosing tools for implementing models in order to effectively build and test predictive models of dividend policy.
Keywords: dividend policy, forecasting, logistic regression, financial indicators, analysis.
Hightlightts:
- the necessity of analyzing and forecasting the dividend policy of companies is proved;
- the methodological foundations of building a model based on logistic regression are substantiated, which can be used to assess the likelihood of changes in dividend payments and develop proposals on ways to improve the quality and effectiveness of management.
Olga A. Bulavko - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia; Pavel Kh. Katabay - Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia; Oksana E. Startseva, Alexey A. Shirnin - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia