Nonlinear influence of social and economic changes on problematic indicators of regional sustainable development (based on data from the Altai region)
Abstract. This paper investigates an approach to explore the nature of problematic indicators of regional development sustainability within the planning and strategizing process. The main components of the approach are the analysis of a set of indicators of regional sustainable development and the identification of the relationship of problematic indicators with other social and economic factors based on econometric methodology. Time series and methods for determining their cointegration relationships, that is, the presence of their stable long-term correlations, were selected as an statistical basis. The study presented in the article is aimed at improving the efficiency of methods for analyzing and forecasting problematic indicators of regional sustainable development. The authors developed an algorithm for identifying factors that influence such indicators of regional development, and created a software implementation of this algorithm, as well as conducted computational experiments and suggested recommendations for the alpplication of the identified patterns. The approaches and methods used in this work to analyze the impact of social and economic changes on the indicators of sustainable development of the Altai region can be applied to other regions of the Russian Federation.
Keywords: regional sustainable development, strategic planning, econometric modeling, nonlinear cointegration.
Hightlightts:
- an algorithm for identifying factors that have the greatest impact on the indicators of sustainable development of a region is proposed developed on the basis of modern research in the field of econometric modeling;
- a software implementation of the algorithm for dynamic analysis of problematic indicators of sustain-ability of regional social and economic development in the context of changing macroeconomic structure is created;
- mathematical models describing the relationships between factors of regional social and economic development are developed.
Acknowledgments: the research was carried out as part of the financing with the support of the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (grant ИРН АР 23490443) "Human capital management, improving the quality of labor resources in the context of the development of the digital economy".
Danil Yu. Popolzin, Igor N. Dubina - Altai State University, Barnaul, Russia; Zhibek B. Rakhmetulina - L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana, Kazakhstan