Forecasting steel production and world trade balance of ores and metals using the ARIMA method
Abstract. Steel is one of the most important raw materials used in almost all spheres of our life, directly or indirectly affecting the industry and economy of the country. This article investigates the forecasting of global steel production, exports and imports of ore and metals of all countries of the world and Russia separately using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method based on data for the period from 2000 to 2020. The ARIMA method is used for time series modeling, taking into account autocorrelation, trends and seasonality of data. Forecasts obtained using this method provide valuable results for strategic decision making in the steel industry and global trade. The forecast for 15 years ahead shows a significant increase in the steel production. World ore and metal exports, reflecting the dependence of exports on ore and metal production and the specialization of economies in this area, are projected to grow by almost twice as much as in 2020. The global ore and metal imports indicator shows import growth over the next 15 years. For Russia, the analysis also shows a decrease in the share of imports of ore and metals in the total volume of goods and preservation of the share of exports at the current level.
Keywords:ARIMA, time series forecasting, steel production, world trade, ore and metals, exports, imports, metallurgical industry, Russia.
Hightlightts:
- the ARIMA method predicts a significant increase in steel production by 2035 - by more than 2 times;
- the ARIMA method predicts a significant increase in global imports of ore and metals;
- the share of imports of ore and metals in Russia in the total set of goods predicted by the ARIMA method will decrease;
- the share of ore and metal exports in Russia projected by the ARIMA method will remain approximately at the current level, slightly reducing its position in the overall balance by 2035.
Leonid D. Savenkov - Institute of Finance, Economics and Management of Togliatti State University, Togliatti, Russia