Non-urbanized territories as an element of economic space: trends and forecast of demographic development
Abstract. Ensuring spatial development is one of the strategic tasks for Russia. The solution of this task depends on the effective realization of existing potential, solving problems and removing barriers to the development of not only large and largest urban agglomerations, cities, but also non-urbanized territories. The purpose of the article is to study trends and make a forecast of demographic development of non-urbanized (rural) territories of the European North of Russia. The research object is the non-urbanized (rural) territories of the European North of Russia. In the paper, methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, economic and statistical analysis are used, population forecasting was conducted using the method of age distribution. It was revealed that the rural areas of the European North in 1990-2021 were characterized by trends of depopulation and migration outflow of the population (primarily of working age). It is established that for the period 2022-2041, a decrease in the rural population of the subjects of the European North is projected in the range from 16.3% to 44.6%. It is determined that negative trends in the demographic development of the non-urbanized (rural) areas, especially geostrategic northern regions, are a threat to the balanced spatial and sustainable socio-economic development of Russia. Measures to reduce the severity of depopulation and migration outflow problems are proposed.
Keywords: economic space, region, European North of Russia, non-urbanized (rural) territories, population, forecast, depopulation, migration outflow
Highlights:
♦ non-urbanized territories ensure a balanced development of the economic space, its connectivity;
♦ rural areas of the European North of Russia were characterized by depopulation trends in 1990-2021, for the period 2022-2041 the continuation of these trends is predicted;
♦ negative trends in the development of the non-urbanized areas, especially geostrategic northern regions, are a threat to the retention of Russia`s economic space.
Svetlana S. Pastrakova - Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vologda, Russia