Neo-industrial typology of structural shifts in the economy under external shocks
Abstract. The strengthening of external shocks can have long-term negative consequences for the Russian economy, strengthening the de-industrial trend in it, which has been formed since the beginning of the market reforms that can lead to the consolidation of technological and social-and-economic backwardness and a long recession. Under such conditions, increasing resilience to external shocks should be structural in nature and take the form of a number of positive shifts in the reproductive, technological, and sectoral structure of the economy. The need to recreate the Russian industry on a new technological basis in the face of increasing sanctions and external restrictions requires an analysis of the neo-industrial transformation of the economy. In accordance with this goal, the article presents a typology of structural shifts under conditions of external shocks, including de-industrial and re-industrial (adaptive) anti-shifts, neo-industrial (anti-shock) shift. To achieve the research purpose, the methods of system-structural analysis, thesis and antithesis synthesis, deduction and comparison of hypotheses were used. The results of the study are aimed at creating the basis for the structural policy of the state taking into account realities of the increased external shocks and the need for neo-industrial development of the Russian economy.
Keywords: neo-industrialization, structural shift and anti-shift, structural policy, external shocks
Highlights:
♦ scientific approaches to the study of structural shifts in the economy were analyzed, their separation from macrodynamic phenomena was determined, related to that the author`s approach was proposed based on the mutual conditionality of structural shifts and shocks in the economy;
♦ a typology of structural shifts in the economy has been developed, taking into account the need for neo-industrial development in the face of external shocks, and including de-industrial and re-industrial structural anti-shifts, neo-industrial shift; their factors and functions were determined;
♦ the anti-shock role of the neo-industrial structural shift was shown that was designed to serve as a guideline in the development of the state`s structural policy in the face of increased external shocks.
Olga G. Aleshina - Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia