ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND TRENDS OF THE ORENBURG REGION LABOR MARKET DEVELOPMENT
The state of the labor market is the most sensitive indicator of the country’s economic development, which allows assessing the effectiveness of the state’s employment and social protection policies. For effective regulation of processes in the labor market, it is necessary to have statistical tools that can identify quantitative patterns of relationships between labor market indicators to justify management decisions. The purpose of this study is to quantify trends and justify the periodization of regional labor market development. The authors analyzed changes in the main indicators that determine the state of the labor market in the Orenburg region based on official statistics. Based on the results of the conducted economic and statistical analysis using multidimensional statistical methods, three homogeneous periods in the development of the labor market were identified, and the most significant factors that influenced the level of employment in the economy of the Orenburg region were studied. The regression model of the level of employment of the population of the Orenburg region in the most unfavorable period of its development 20102018 is substantiated and interpreted. The obtained results allow us to improve the quality of information and analytical support of regional labor market management bodies for making effective strategic decisions on key issues of its functioning.
Keywords: statistical analysis, labor market, region, periodization, dynamic series, multidimensional grouping, factors, Orenburg region.
Highlights:
♦ the analysis of dynamics of the main indicators characterizing the state of the labor market of the Orenburg region is carried out;
♦ the periodization of the complex dynamic series for the period 2000-2018 was carried out using methods of multidimensional classification, in particular, cluster analysis procedures;
♦ a regression model of the level of population employment of the Orenburg region was constructed and interpreted on the interval of single-quality development in 2010-2018.
Olga V. Bakanach, Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Statistics and Econometrics Department of Samara State University of Economics; Irina N. Vygolova, Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor of the Orenburg State Agrarian University; Tatyana N. Larina, Doctor of Economics, Professor of Orenburg State Agrarian University.