DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT: STAGES AND EVALUATION
The relevance of statistical analysis of demographic development is due to negative processes of the natural movement of the population, low birth rates, and high mortality of the Russian population. The demand for an information-analytical approach to the study of negative processes under consideration is necessary for the development of effective measures and the adoption of effective managerial decisions at various levels that ensure the positive demographic development of Russia and its regions. The study examines the processes of demographic development in the regions of the Russian Federation. The originality (scientific novelty) of the study is the formation of the informational and methodological approach for establishing the stages of demographic development based on meaningful analysis of reproductive and migration components and assessing the dynamics of negative processes in Russia. This approach made it possible to distinguish three groups of regions according to the level of demographic development using integral estimates obtained based on the developed system of indicators and the use of the non-parametric method of expert estimates Pattern. The presented results can be the basis for developing a mechanism for making effective management decisions.
Keywords: demographic development, system of indicators, integrated assessment.
Highlights:
stages of demographic development are identified based on its substantial analysis and quantitative assessment of the replacement of the natural population decline in Russia and based on the replacement index;
a system of indicators necessary for the development of the integrated indicator and reflecting the reproductive component of demographic development is formed;
three groups of Russian regions are established (with a low, medium, and above average level) based on ranking the regions according to the integrated method of demographic development obtained by the Pattern method.
Olga F. Chistik, Doctor of Economics, Professor of Samara State University of Economics.