THE REASONS FOR THE ARRITHM OF RUSSIAN ECONOMY
The need for a substantive study of the development of the Russian economy led to the causes of its arrhythmia. The goal of the study is to assess and analyze the excitement and rhythm of the Russian economy in the forecast time series in retrospect and perspective until 2020, covering a complex of excitation factors. The excitation criteria are based on the dynamics in the time series and its mode, the criteria for rhythm are the growth rates and their asymmetry of distribution; the criteria for arrhythmias are peak negative and positive values of the growth rates. To solve the problem, the authors used a methodology based on the fundamental principles of the theory and practice of factor analysis, on economic laws, and the results of scientific research in the field of equilibrium development of the economy. Having analyzed the excitement and rhythm of the Russian economy in retrospect and in the long term until 2020, the dominant excitation and causes for arrhythmia are identified. The study shows that the Russian economy was and remains raw with a predominance of excitement in fuel exports, food imports and employment in the services sector, while high arrhythmia values are associated with GDP growth, natural rent, fuel imports, and current account balance. The weight of the excitation of fuel exports and food imports is relatively stable and reflects not the best state of development of the Russian economy - “oil for food”.
Keywords: arrhythmia, asymmetry of distribution, development, dominant, dynamic properties, excitation, factors, growth rates, rhythm, system.
Highlights:
the dominant factor in the excitation of the Russian economy at the macro level is the export of hydrocarbons, which is associated with the raw material structure and the favorable tax regime for exporters;
low export customs duty rates extend Russian tax jurisdiction to the markets of developing countries (Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Tunisia, India, Cambodia, Laos, Pakistan, Peru, Tunisia, Chile);
the dominant excitation factor at the meso-level, along with the export of hydrocarbons, is food imports, which reflects the American program for the development of the Russian economy in the context of oil-for-food;
the dominant factor of arousal at the micro level is employment in the service sector and in industry. At the same time, the predominance of employment in services over work in industry reflects the global trend of transition in developing countries to the post-industrial stage of development.
Valery V. Smirnov, Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor; Denis G. Osipov, Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Life Safety and Environmental Engineering; Anna A. Babaeva, a senior lecturer; Elena V. Grigorieva, a senior lecturer - Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary.