STUDYING THE EVOLUTION OF APPROACHES TO BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING OF COMPANIES
The genesis of approaches to bankruptcy forecasting of companies is considered. The research hypothesis is put forward and proved that in the course of its evolution, bankruptcy forecasting models lose their predictive power and are not able to smooth out the emerging turbulence in the development of economic systems. As a result, new approaches to bankruptcy forecasting appear, which initially give fairly reliable results, and then lose their effectiveness again. It has been established that the weakening of bankruptcy forecasting models is directly dependent on the breadth of its distribution, that the probability of bankruptcy forecasting of companies decreases with an increase in the alleged manipulation of financial statements in order to veil the current financial condition. The conclusion is made about the need to develop a new approach to building models for bankruptcy forecasting, which will be based on dynamic transformation and the absence of rigid determinism of indicators included in the model.
Keywords: bankruptcy, bankruptcy forecasting, bankruptcy forecasting models, evolution of bankruptcy forecasting models, manipulation of financial statements.
Highlights:
♦ models of bankruptcy forecasting in the course of their evolution lose their predictive power and, over time, fail to smooth out the resulting turbulence in the development of economic systems, expressed, in particular, in economic crises;
♦ the creation of complex models for bankruptcy forecasting is associated with high costs, which recently determined their small number and indicated the absence of competition in this field of scientific knowledge;
♦ the weakening of the bankruptcy forecasting model is directly dependent on the breadth of its distribution;
♦the probability of bankruptcy forecasting of companies decreases with increasing manipulation of data from accounting (financial) statements in order to veil the current financial condition.
Nina S. Vasilyeva, a senior lecturer; Marina Yu. Savelyeva, Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor; Mikhail A. Alekseev, Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor - Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management.