RESULTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY AND ONSET OF DEPOPULATION IN RUSSIA
The effectiveness of demographic policy measures in the last decade of the 21st century is considered. It is shown that indicators, outlined by the "Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" for the 1st stage, i.e. for 2015, are gained pre-schedule and Russia withdrew from the depopulation regime at the beginning of the second decade. At the same time, the study reveals that the demographic situation will worsen since 2017, as a result of the demographic wave created in the 1980s of the last century. It will reduce the number of the reproductive population, the number of the able-bodied population and, conversely, will increase the number of the elderly, etc.
Keywords: depopulation, fertility, mortality, migration, demographic wave, reproductive age, life expectancy, total fertility rate.
Highlights:
in Russia the second stage of depopulation begins from the middle of the second decade of the 21st century. The special feature of the new stage is the reduction in the birth rate, due mainly to a decrease in the number of women in reproductive age. These are the consequences of the demographic wave created in the 80-90s of the XX century;
the demographic wave will lead to a reduction in the number of people of working age, there will be a further aging of the population, which will create limitations in the formation of labour structures, and the demographic burden on people of working age will increase. One should not underestimate the geopolitical consequences of the oncoming demographic development;
the demographic dynamics in Russia will be significantly affected by the reduction of the migration potential in the states formed in the post-Soviet space after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Vyacheslav V. Lokosov, Doctor of Sociological Sciences, Professor, Director of the Institute of Social and Economic Problems of Population, the Russian Academy of Sciences; Leonid L. Rybakovsky, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Scientific Officer, Institute for Social and Political Studies, the Russian Academy of Sciences; Oleg L. Rybakovsky, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of Demography of the Institute of Social and Economic Problems of Population, the Russian Academy of Sciences; Gabibulla R. Khasayev Gabibulla, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Rector of Samara State University of Economics.