FORMATION OF APPROACHES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FORECASTING METHODOLOGY OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY
The authors analyze the existing forecasting methods of innovation activity, and reveal their advantages and disadvantages. The systematization of methods is carried out depending on the strategy of innovation development and objectives of innovation policy.
Keywords: innovation, forecasting methods, management, strategy, sources of innovation opportunities, innovation potential, economic development, type of innovation policy.
Highlights:
the progressive forecasting system is a basis for effective management of innovative development that makes it possible to use existing resources efficiently, to determine the priorities for introducing innovations, to analyze and timely identify sources of innovative opportunities;
to improve the accuracy of forecasting, it is necessary to use a set of qualitative and quantitative methods based on the analysis of existing and predicted changes, since all methods are complementary, each takes into account one or another feature of the innovation process and aims to solve certain problems;
methods have different ability to identify sources of innovative opportunities, which has a direct impact on the nature of innovation policy;
the distinctive feature of the leading innovation policy is the constant identification of innovative opportunities based on the analysis of a wide range of predicted changes, taking into account the cross-influences of innovation trends, the problems of interaction of participants in the economic system;
a combination of technological foresight and quantitative methods will ensure the creation of the system for forecasting innovations that allows identifying and shaping the trends of innovative development.
Olga N. Korableva, Doctor of Economics, Professor, St. Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics, St. Petersburg State University; Margarita I. Guseva, a post-graduate student, St. Petersburg State University of Economics.