THE TREND DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The identification of long, regular trends of macroeconomic dynamics is a necessary condition for forecasting the economic situation and developing a development strategy. The purpose of this study was to develop mathematical models for describing and analyzing long-term trends in macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation (RSFSR). The modeling was carried out on the basis of regression analysis of statistical data on the majority of indicators for the period 1956-2014, and GDP for a longer period. As a result, trend models of GDP, fixed capital, investments and a number of structural macroeconomic indicators (the retirement rate of fixed capital, the rate of employment, labor productivity, return on capital, the rate of accumulation) have been formed, the analysis of which has confirmed their adequacy to the approved concepts of the labor-saving scientific and technological progress and the high-cost form of the reproduction process. A model is proposed for assessing the level of the scientific and technological progress as the rate of change in the ratio of return on assets and the rate of accumulation, the analysis of which has showed a correspondence between the cyclical nature of macroeconomic indicators and the dynamics of the scientific and technical progress.
Keywords: economic growth, macroeconomic dynamics, forecasting, GDP, fixed capital, investments, return on capital, capital accumulation, employment, NTP modeling, Russia.
Mikhail I. Geraskin, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of Mathematical Methods in Economics Department; Polina V. Porubova, a post-graduate student - Samara National Research University (Samara University).