STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH
The purpose of the study is to model and predict the growth of the Russian Federation on the basis of the modified model Cobb - Douglas developed by the authors. The findings, which were obtained in the study, reflect the impact of certain factors on the GDP taking into account the time lags. The authors calculate the predicted values of Russia`s GDP, estimate confidence intervals. Russia`s economic growth is achieved extensively due to attraction of additional investments, as evidenced by the model and the correlation value of the factor of investments in fixed assets and wages.
Keywords: economic growth, growth factors, correlation analysis, regression analysis, modeling, forecasting.
Vladimir P. Postnikov, a senior teacher; Victoria V. Kylosova, an external PhD student. Perm National Research Polytechnic University.