PREDICTING THE DYNAMICS OF THE REGIONAL CREDIT MARKET IN RUSSIA
The article represents approaches to the prediction of the credit market in the region on the basis of mathematical modeling and it is necessary in the development of monetary policy by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and in deciding on the key rate. The authors illustrate models describing such indicators of the credit market, as the volume of lending to individuals in the Samara region, the volume of outstanding loans and repayment rate over time for a number of years, including the forecast period. The authors justify the feasibility of using this approach to forecasting and lending of non-financial companies in the regional context, and in Russia in general.
Keywords: monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the key rate of the Bank of Russia, the regional credit market, credit market forecasting, market indicators of credit.
Vasily E. Gordeev. The Samara Branch of the Volga-Vyatka State Bank of Russia; Marina B. Tershukova, Candidate of Economics, Professor. - Samara State University of Economics.