The impact of depolarization of migrant labor flows on the economic security of developed countries

Abstract

Despite the processes of deglobalization, international labor migration to the construction sector continues to grow, creating threats to migration security through the processes of "polarization" of flows – social tensions, illegal employment and economic instability of regional labor markets. The existing studies do not simultaneously take into account the impact of deglobalization with correlation on "polarization," industry specifics, and economic security risks, which makes it difficult to develop effective mechanisms for managing migration flows. The main problem lies in the lack of a holistic conceptual model explaining the mechanisms for increasing international labor migration during the period of deglobalization, when traditional theories of globalization and the free movement of labor are losing explanatory power. The institutional, eco nomic and social factors that allow the construction market to act as a "point of attraction" for migrants, contrary to the general trend towards closeness and fragmentation of the global space, have not been studied sufficiently. The term reverse polarization of migration flows is not sufficiently disclosed. The paper proposes the approach to analyzing the depolarization of migration flows, a process in which labor is redistributed be tween and within countries with different levels of development, including through the return of some migrants to their homeland or their relocation to new employment regions. Special attention is paid to assessing the impact of these processes on the economic security of developed countries: the risks for staff shortages in critical industries, labor market imbalances, and potential benefits from workforce diversification are considered. The analysis for the cases from a number of developed countries demonstrating various models of adaptation to new migration realities is carried out. As a result, recommendations are formulated to improve migration policy, taking into account industry specifics and current geopolitical challenges.