The impact of socio-economic factors on the number of abortions in Russian regions: empirical assessment

The article empirically analyzes the influence of socio-economic factors on the number of abortions in the regions of Russia. The relevance of the study is due to the ongoing demographic crisis, which is reflected in the natural decline of the population, and the need for finding additional reserves to increase the birth rate by reducing the number of artificial termination of pregnancy. The purpose of the study is to identify socio-economic factors influencing the number of abortions in the regions of Russia. The paper uses the methods of econometric analysis for panel data for 2019–2023 for 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. These methods include descriptive statistics analysis, correlation and regression analysis; tests for the presence of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, as well as specification tests. The pool regression and regression models with fixed and random effects are constructed. The specification tests were carried out, which determined the fixed-effects model as the best one. The results showed that alcohol consumption, the number of obstetricians and gynecologists, GRP per capita, health care costs, the proportion of the population with incomes below the subsistence level and housing availability significantly affect the number of abortions. It has been confirmed that improvements in the socio-economic situation, increased financing of health care and improved housing conditions contribute to a decrease in the number of abortions, while high levels of poverty and alcohol abuse increase their number. The conclusion is made about the need for a comprehensive demographic policy focused not only on financial support for families, but also on improving the quality of life and conditions of social well-being. The limitations of the study are related to the short time period of the analysis and the lack of consideration of cultural and psycho-emotional factors. The prospects for further scientific work lie in the use of survey methods to identify individual motives for deciding on abortion.

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