Labor market and manufacturing industry of the region: trends and mutual influence
Abstract. The aggravation of the demographic situation affects the development of regions to varying degrees, depending on the structure of their economy. With the active expansion of the use of automation and digitalization in the production process, the negative impact of a decrease in the number of able-bodied residents of the region is offset by a decrease in the labor intensity of production and an increase in the labor productivity. The study based on Rosstat data shows the specifics of the current situation in the labor market of the North-West of Russia, based on the dynamics of the population and the unemployed people. According to the results of a survey of managers of the manufacturing sector of the economy, the qualifications of employees and their level of education were assessed. An econometric model of the influence of quantitative and qualitative indicators characterizing the labor resources of the macroregion and the financing of innovative activity of the enterprise on the output of manufacturing industries is developed. According to the results of the study, it was revealed that, according to the econometric model, only an increase in the number of employees contributes to the increase in the output of manufacturing industries. The fact that the number of specialists with higher education and middle management has decreased in the macroregion since 2009 with an increase in output volumes indicates the processes of automation and digitalization in the North-West of Russia. Recommendations have been developed to enhance the output of the macroregionc`s manufacturing industry, stimulating the accelerated transition of production lines to automation and robotization.
Keywords: region, manufacturing industry, model, impact assessment, labor resources, qualified personnel.
Highlights:
♦ the deterioration of the demographic situation in the industrially developed macroregion is increasing due to the complication of the geopolitical situation, which in turn negatively affects the manufacturing industry - one of the main actors of the regional economy;
♦ according to the estimates of the heads of the manufacturing sector of the economy of the North-West of Russia, enterprises felt the shortage of engineering and technical personnel and skilled workers of 44,6% and 39,2% respectively, while most of them are not interested in hiring foreign migrants (75,3%);
♦ according to the constructed influence model, it can be seen that the processes of automation and digitalization neutralize the trends towards population decline and do not prevent the increase in the output of manufacturing industries, however, the inactive flow of modernization processes is illustrated by the downward trend of the indicator of the costs of innovative activities of organizations.
Elena Yu. Shirokova - Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vologda, Russia