Mathematical modeling of non-fulfillment of creditors` financial claims by manufacturing companies
Abstract The paper examines the possibility of companies using models developed by the authors to assess the risk of non-fulfillment of financial obligations under bonds to creditors. The applicability of well-known models of the financial stability analysis of the company to the assessment of this risk is investigated. The analysis of the effectiveness of these mathematical models is carried out. Interval estimates of the financial stability of the company have been developed. It is noted that these operations will increase the effectiveness of modeling the studied risk of non-fulfillment of creditors` financial claims.
Keywords: non-fulfillment of creditors` financial claims, financial stability of the company, method of statistical hypotheses, mathematical modeling
Highlights:
♦ the mathematical models developed by the authors for assessingthe financial stability of companies -logit model (2018), probit model (2018), logit model (2022) - are applicable to assessingthe risk of noncompliance with financial obligations to creditors;
♦ the model of E. Altman, the six-factor model of V.E. Rygin, the five-factor model of E.A. Fedorova and E.V. Gilenko can also be applied to risk assessment, the modeling efficiency for them does not exceed 75%;
♦ the use of interval estimates of models makes it possible to increase the effectiveness of modeling this risk up to 81%.
Sergey I. Makarov - Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia, Maxim A. Boldyrev - Samara University of Public Administration "International Market Institute", Samara, Russia