FACTORS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE REGIONS OF THE NORTH-WESTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT


Shirokova E.Yu.

Ensuring stable economic growth requires identifying and evaluating factors that can reduce the negative impact of external circumstances. The introduction of sanctions policies by Western countries and the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic are strong incentives to solve the problems of finding tools and methods to reduce the likelihood of stagnation and crisis phenomena in the economic system. In a country with a large number of subjects that have their own characteristics, it is necessary to constantly monitor the dynamics of their socio-economic development. Accountability of the meso-economic systems specifics is limited by the lack of required statistical information. The study assessed the contribution of economic growth factors to the gross regional product of the North-Western federal district, and selected correlation and regression analysis as the methodological basis. The research is based on Rosstat statistics for the regions of the district for the period from 2000 to 2018. All indicators are presented in a comparable form using the corresponding indexes and calculated taking into account changes in the number of population for each region. As a result of correlation analysis for all subjects of the macroregion, the features of interaction between the dynamics of GRP and the volume of investment in fixed assets, actual final consumption, consolidated budget expenditures, exports and imports are highlighted. A regression equation was constructed that showed the maximum impact of investment in fixed assets on economic growth and the statistical insignificance of indicators of import volumes and expenditures of consolidated budgets. The use of this method can help public authorities in adjusting measures to stimulate economic growth in the region, as well as researchers of factors that affect economic growth. Keywords: regional economy, economic growth factors, GRP, correlation analysis, regression analysis. Highlights: ♦ the general trend of decreasing economic growth rates in the country and regions is revealed, and the main features of the development of the subjects of the North-Western federal district are shown; ♦ the importance of setting priorities in stimulating regional economic growth factors is substantiated; ♦ the importance of taking into account regional specifics and an integrated approach to solving the tasks of activating the development of regional economies is revealed.

Elena Yu. Shirokova, Junior Researcher at the Science Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences.


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