FORECAST OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAMARA REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF WORLD ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
The relevance of the study is due to a high importance of the energy market for the Samara region and the country as a whole. Energy has moved to a new stage of its development, the structure of energy consumption is changing, energy prices are fluctuating, green technologies are spreading widely, and there is a steady tendency to increase the use of renewable energy sources (hereinafter RES). It is important to understand how current and future changes will affect the region’s energy market. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to analyze the forecast materials on development trends of the world and Russian energy and, based on them, to predict the development of energy in the Samara region for the coming decades. Prediction of the fuel and energy complex development (FEC) of the Samara region was carried out on the forecast-analytical complex “Energy”. The authors developed and analyzed scenarios for the energy-efficient development of the regional fuel and energy complex for 2018-2035. Regional development scenarios were generated in the context of the draft Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035, taking into account regional prospects for domestic demand for fuel and energy and development trends of world and Russian energy. According to the developed scenarios, using simulation models of the economy and the fuel and energy complex, regional forecasted fuel and energy balances (hereinafter, the fuel and energy budget) of the Samara region were formed for 2018-2035 in increments of 1 year. Based on the formed fuel and energy indicators, forecast estimates of the main indicators characterizing energy efficiency and energy security of the fuel and energy complex of the Samara region on the forecast horizon were calculated.
Keywords: energy, energy market, energy development forecast, energy development trends, Samara region.
Highlights:
in the coming decades, a slowdown in the growth of demand for energy resources and accelerated development of renewable energy sources is expected. However, the bulk of the consumed fuel and energy resources (hereinafter TER) will continue to be occupied by oil and gas;
coal demand is expected to decline, and this trend will continue throughout the forecast horizon;
despite the advanced “green” technologies, whose share in the world market is growing, there is no decrease in demand for oil products in the domestic market or significant change in the structure of energy resources in Russia and in the Samara region. Oil, as one of the main natural resources, will continue to generate a significant share of GRP in the coming years. In the coming decades, an increase in oil production and refining is expected in the Samara region, while an increase in the oil recovery coefficient and an increase in the depth of its refining will be observed;
regional forecast fuel and energy balances of the Samara region for 2018-2035 were formed;
forecast estimates of the main indicators characterizing energy efficiency and energy security of the fuel and energy complex of the Samara region on the forecast horizon were calculated.
Vladimir A. Tsybatov, Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Regional Economics and Management; Irina A. Naugol’nova, Candidate Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Organization and Development Strategy of the Enterprise - Samara State University of Economics.