INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF MANIPULATING ACTIVITIES IN ACCOUNTING (FINANCIAL) REPORTING OF COMPANIES
The paper considers the issues of manipulating the results of activities in the accounting (fi-nancial) statements. For all groups of stakeholders in the present unstable period of the Russian economy, there are significant risks of making effective management decisions based on unreliable data contained in the accounting (financial) statements, which were deliberately distorted. Analysis of the known models for assessing the probability of manipulating the data of the accounting (fi-nancial) statements and the Russian practice of auditing indicate their low efficiency. In this regard, it is important to develop a new approach to assess the likelihood of manipulating activities in the accounting (financial) statements. This approach allows us to take into account the domestic specif-ics of business, accounting, dynamic transformation and strict determinism of indicators included in foreign models. The purpose of the study is to build an integrated indicator assessing the probability of overstatement of the results of companies producing food in the accounting (financial) state-ments. In this study, statistical methods were used (in particular, the regression analysis method) by constructing the corresponding probit-regressions. The study was aimed at developing a methodo-logical framework for assessing the likelihood of manipulating accounting (financial) reporting data.
Keywords: accounting (financial) statements, risks of making effective management deci-sions by all stakeholders of the company, accuracy of accounting (financial) statements data, manip-ulating activities in the accounting (financial) statements, probit-regression of the likelihood of ma-nipulating activities in the accounting (financial) statements , financial performance.
Highlights:
the main reasons for the low efficiency of foreign models when assessing the probability of manipulating the accounting (financial) report data for Russian companies were considered;
a new approach was presented, highlighting the stages of calculating the integral indicator for assessing the likelihood of manipulating activities in the accounting (financial) reporting of com-panies;
probit-regressions were built, allowing to assess the probability of overestimation of produc-tion results in the accounting (financial) statements of companies producing food.
Marina Yu. Savelyeva, Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor; Anna V. Trenikhina, employee of the Department of Corporate Management and Finance; Mikhail A. Alekseev, Doctor of Economics - Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management.