DEVELOPMENT OF FORECAST MODELS AND SCENARIOS OF ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA


Karsuntseva O.V.

The article illustrates the features of the priority directions of machine-building complex development in the Russian Federation. Based on the analysis of statistical data on the state of the productive capacity of the Russian machine-building complex the author designs the strategic scenario of the production potential of the Russian engineering industry for the period up to 2025 : inertia, modernization, partnership; and justifies the choice of a partner development scenario as the target one. It is found that the Russian economy has the necessary conditions and opportunities to solve the problems of complex modernization and to provide the pace of the advanced development of domestic machine-building enterprises. It is proved that the effective state import substitution program can be the foundation to realize these goals corresponding to modern requirements and capable of ensuring the integrity and diversity of the process of transformation. Keywords: engineering, production potential, forecast model, scenarios, strategies, multiplier effect.

Olga V. Karsuntseva, Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor. - Samara State Technical University.


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